Colorado River Mid-Term “Probabilistic” Operations Model (MTOM) (2009-2013)

Precision worked with the Upper Colorado Region and the Lower Colorado Region of the United States Bureau of Reclamation to develop a mid-term probabilistic operations modeling system (MTOM) in RiverWare® for the entire Colorado River Basin. The MTOM system simulates the operations of all major basin reservoirs including Lakes Powell and Mead, the significant upper basin and lower basin demands, and flows throughout the basin. The model is driven by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center’s 60-month ESP forecast ensemble. The system runs each of the forecasts in the ensemble and analyzes the output of all runs collectively to estimate the probability of attaining key flow targets, or significant elevations in the reservoirs, or other important thresholds 2-5 years into the future. The MTOM system significantly improves the information available to Reclamation’s operations staff, decision-makers within the Bureau of Reclamation, and stakeholders in the basin to make better-informed decisions concerning planning and management of Colorado River Basin Water.